CFD + Futures EV Simulator

Different prop firms fail you in different ways.

A CFD challenge and a futures combine can look the same on a review site, but they fail you in different ways. Pick the rule type first, then run the numbers in the right units: equity percentages for CFD, contracts and dollar limits for futures.

Official-rule presets Browser-only model No trading connection

Step 1 Pick the rule type first, then enter your strategy.

The form changes with the rule type. CFD firms watch equity drawdown and phase targets; futures firms watch contracts, trailing limits, and payout buffers.

Rule preset Presets are editable approximations from public rule pages, not legal advice.

Failure unit Equity %

Risk floor Static / EOD

Best use CFD challenge EV

A prop-firm challenge simulator estimates how often a trading edge (win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade) reaches the profit target before it breaches a daily-loss or maximum-loss limit; it runs many simulated runs of your own numbers so you can compare rule types, and it is a probability estimate, not a prediction of any specific firm's outcome.

Data reference: Prop Firm Rules Dataset (CSV / JSON)

Funded-account checks

Use these three pages as a simple path: understand the rules, stress a scenario, then track consistency before a payout.

1 Understand the ruleCompare challenge types, drawdown floors and payout logic. 2 Run a breach scenarioModel intraday vs end-of-day trailing drawdown before sizing a trade. 3 Track consistencyCheck whether one big day is blocking payout eligibility.

Inputs

The inputs match the rule type you picked.

Use CFD mode for FTMO/OANDA-style account equity rules. Use futures mode for Topstep/Apex-style contract sizing, trailing thresholds, and payout buffers.

Account rules

CFD rule engine

Account size Nominal simulated account size, USD. Attempt fee Cash cost per challenge or combine attempt. Phase 1 target % Phase 2 target % Set 0 for a 1-step CFD challenge. Profit target $ Max drawdown $ Daily loss $ Use 0 when the selected combine has no daily loss rule. Daily loss behavior LucidPro-style DLL restricts the day without closing the account if MLL is intact. Maximum loss % Daily loss % Drawdown model Consistency rule Consistency cap % Daily profit cap % Used by OANDA-style daily max profit rules. Minimum trading days Max model days

Trading model

Strategy engine

Win rate % Payoff ratio Average win / average loss. Risk per trade % Contracts Max contracts Average win ticks Average loss ticks Tick value $ NQ micro = 2, ES micro = 1.25, NQ mini = 5, ES mini = 12.5. Trades per day Cost per trade % Commission, spread, slippage as account %. Attack mode Monte Carlo paths Random seed

Funded and payout rules

Continuation value

Activation fee Reset / subscription fee Payout split % Payout cap $ First payout threshold % Funded start model Winning days needed Qualifying day profit $ Payout buffer $ Extra buffer above the drawdown floor before payout. Refund credit

Default uses 20,000 paths with a browser operation budget.

Selected rule interpretation

Usability layer

CFD mode models account equity, phase targets, daily loss, lifetime drawdown, and optional best-day or daily-profit consistency.

Outputs

Your odds at a glance.

The cards split evaluation pass odds from funded payout odds. A futures funded account often starts from a different balance than the evaluation, so the two are not the same.

EV per attempt

Waiting for simulation.

Evaluation pass probability

Rule-clean paths only.

First payout probability

Funded paths that reach payout eligibility before failing.

Expected fee burn

Attempts, fees, and activation drag before first payout.

Primary rule trap

Consistency, daily loss, or trailing floor failure share.

Risk / contracts vs EV heatmap

Rows change with the selected rule family. Columns are win rate.

Rule geometry curve

The curve shows the break-even win rate for current costs and rule friction.

Research

Why CFD and futures need different math.

This is not a generic fee calculator. CFD and futures use different drawdown floors, units, and payout rules, so each one gets its own model.

CFD challenge model

Inputs stay percentage-based because account equity and phase targets are usually defined from initial simulated capital.
Daily loss and maximum loss are separate. Some daily limits reset from balance or end-of-day equity; maximum drawdown can be static or trailing.
Consistency may appear as a best-day rule or a daily max profit cap. It may block passing or only block payout, depending on the firm.

Futures combine model

Inputs use contracts, tick value, and dollar thresholds because buying power is not the same thing as cash capital.
Trailing thresholds can be end-of-day or real-time intraday. Some include unrealized P&L and trigger liquidation the moment the threshold is touched.
Funded payout logic can depend on winning days, payout caps, safety buffers, and consistency since the last approved payout.

Model notes

This is a browser-only research model. It approximates trade-level P&L, drawdown floors, consistency debt, and first-payout states. It does not submit orders, read accounts, or connect to any broker. It does not promise any return, pass rate, or payout outcome.

consistencyDebt = max(0, largestWinningDay / cap - qualifyingProfit)

CFD paths use account-size percentages and optional two-phase evaluation.
Futures paths use contracts x ticks x tick value, with contract caps and dollar drawdown.
The equal-step gambler's ruin check is kept only as an intuition aid, not as the main EV engine.

Official sources checked

FTMO trading objectives: phase targets, daily loss, max loss, best day rule. OANDA Prop Trader challenge rules: fixed/dynamic daily loss, static/trailing drawdown, daily max profit. FundedNext Stellar 2-Step rules: daily loss, maximum loss, minimum trading days. FundedNext Stellar 2-Step profit targets: 8% phase one and 5% phase two. FundedNext Stellar 1-Step rules: 10% target, 3% daily loss, 6% maximum loss. Topstep Trading Combine parameters: MLL, profit target, consistency target, max contracts. Topstep MLL: trailing end-of-day balance, unrealized P&L breach behavior, XFA starts from $0. Topstep pricing: standard monthly path and activation fee by account size. LucidPro evaluation account: target, daily loss, MLL, max size. LucidPro drawdown: EOD MLL and locked balance thresholds. LucidPro payouts: 90/10 split, minimum profit goal, buffer balance. Apex intraday trailing drawdown: real-time peak balance, unrealized P&L, fixed dollar distance. Apex EOD drawdown: daily close calculation, intraday enforcement, threshold stop rules.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

How does the pass-probability simulation work?

It runs many simulated challenges using your win rate, reward-to-risk and risk per trade, and counts how often the account reaches the profit target before hitting a daily-loss or maximum-loss limit. The result is a probability estimate from your inputs, not a prediction.

What is the difference between a daily loss limit and a maximum loss limit?

A daily loss limit caps how far you can fall within one trading day (often measured from the day's starting balance or equity). A maximum loss limit caps total drawdown across the whole account. A run fails when either one is breached.

What does trailing drawdown mean here?

A trailing maximum drawdown is a loss line that rises with each new equity high and never falls. Whether it tracks intraday peaks or only end-of-day closes, and whether it locks once you reach the starting balance, changes how easily a give-back breaches the account.

How is challenge expected value estimated?

If you enter a challenge fee and an expected payout, expected value per attempt weighs the payout by the pass probability against the fee you pay whether or not you pass. A negative per-trade edge cannot be rescued by position sizing.

Do CFD and futures challenges use the same math?

No. CFD rules are usually defined in equity percentages, while futures combines use contracts, tick value and dollar thresholds. The tool lets you pick the rule type and enter each firm's own numbers rather than assuming a single rulebook.