Monte Carlo Equity Curve Simulator

How it works

What this calculator does

It generates many possible trade sequences from your inputs, using a deterministic seed so the same inputs reproduce the same result. Each path starts at your account equity, risks the same percentage of current equity on every trade, and records final equity plus maximum drawdown.

The model

For each trade, the engine draws one seeded random number. If it is below your win rate, equity increases by risk fraction × equity × R. Otherwise equity decreases by risk fraction × equity. A path is marked as hitting ruin if equity falls to or below your ruin threshold.

The simulator then sorts all final equity values and reports the 5th, 25th, median, 75th and 95th percentiles, plus the share of paths ending above starting equity, the share hitting ruin, median max drawdown and worst max drawdown.

Worked example

With a $10,000 start, 50% win rate, 1R payoff, 1% risk and 100 trades, the median final equity sits slightly below the start in the seeded reference case. That is volatility drag: a 1% loss followed by a 1% gain does not fully recover the account when risk is a fraction of current equity.

What it deliberately does not do

It does not infer your win rate, model changing position size rules, include fees, or forecast future market behavior. The output is a model estimate from your assumptions, useful for sizing conversations and strategy review, not investment or trading advice.